This page contains a description of Brazil’s autocratization episode, as well as an analysis of its environmental performance during the autocratization episode using literature and EPI data.
democratic performance
Brazil is currently an electoral democracy according to V-Dem (V-Dem Institute, 2025) and is classified as “free” by Freedom House (2024). Under president Jair Bolsonaro, the quality of Brazilian democracy declined. Bolsonaro, who is a former military officer, appointed military members to civilian roles, thereby blurring the lines between civilian and military governance (Traver, 2024). Additionally, he has openly doubted the legitimacy of democratic institutions. He claimed fraud occurred during the 2014 and 2018 election, for which there is no evidence (Camarotti & Nogueira, 2021). He threatened Supreme Court justices and his government has sought prison sentences against critical journalists, university professors and politicians using a dictatorship-era law (Human Rights Watch, 2021a, 2021b). He called protests from his supporters against Congress and the Supreme Court a “necessary countercoup” (Wintour, 2021). Following his loss in the 2022 general election against Lula da Silva, he did not concede defeat. A week after Lula took office, supporters of Bolsonaro stormed and vandalized the Supreme Court, Congress and the presidential palace, calling for a military coup (Brito, 2024). Most importantly, Bolsonaro has been found guilty of leading a coup plot to stay in power following his loss of the 2022 general election against Lula. This plot involved a plan to assassinate Lula, his vice president, the president of the Senate, and a Supreme Court justice along with two of his colleagues (Phillips, 2025; Van Royen, 2025).
environmental performance according to literature
Brazil’s autocratization episode started before Bolsonaro came to power. In 2017, Brazil was considered the “deadliest country for environmental activists” (Global Witness, 2017, p. 32). Under Bolsonaro’s government, environmental policies became less strict. The government alleged that there were excesses in enforcement by the federal agency responsible for applying the National Environment Policy. The budget for environmental agencies was reduced substantially, and less fines were applied for environmental crimes, especially regarding crimes against flora (Shalders, 2019; Gonzaga, 2022). Three years after the start of Bolsonaro’s presidency, deforestation in the Amazon rainforest had increased by 52.9%. Additionally, around 1,500 pesticides, many of which are banned in the EU, were approved during the first three years of Bolsonaro’s presidency (Gonzaga, 2022).
environmental performance according to epi
The area marked green is the autocratization episode.
However, Brazil improved its CO2 performance during the autocratization episode. There was a steep incline in CO2 performance during the first half of the autocratization episode, and it remained relatively stable afterwards.
conclusion
The quality of Brazilian democracy declined under president Bolsonaro. He attacked institutions and led a coup attempt to overthrow the democratic system. Environmental policies became less strict, and deforestation increased. However, Brazil improved its CO2 performance under Bolsonaro. Note that the deforestation which occurred may negatively contribute to the CO2 performance, though, since trees absorb carbon dioxide.
Literature
Brito, R. (2024, January 8). Brazil marks anniversary of January 8 attack on democracy. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazil-mark-anniversary-january-8-attack-democracy-2024-01-08/
Camarotti, G., & Nogueira, I. (2021, June 17). Bolsonaro alega fraude nas eleições de 2014 e 2018, mas não há provas. UOL. https://noticias.uol.com.br/confere/ultimas-noticias/2021/06/17/bolsonaro-alega-fraude-nas-eleicoes-de-2014-e-2018-mas-nao-ha-provas.htm
Freedom House. (2024). Brazil: Country Profile. Freedom House. https://freedomhouse.org/country/brazil
Gonzaga, D. (2022, January 26). Bolsonaro is a catastrophe for the environment. Greenpeace International. https://www.greenpeace.org/international/story/52098/bolsonaro-president-brazil-amazon-environment/
Human Rights Watch. (2021a, January 28). Brazil: Crackdown on Critics of Covid-19 Response. https://www.hrw.org/news/2021/01/28/brazil-crackdown-critics-covid-19-response
Human Rights Watch. (2021b, September 15). Brazil: Bolsonaro Threatens Democratic Rule. https://www.hrw.org/news/2021/09/15/brazil-bolsonaro-threatens-democratic-rule
Shalders, A. (2019, August 24). Queimadas disparam, mas multas do Ibama despencam sob Bolsonaro. BBC News Brasil. https://www.bbc.com/portuguese/brasil-49430376
Traver, A. (2024, November 4). The militarization of government and policing in Brazil: A case study of democratic backsliding under Jair Bolsonaro. Democratic Erosion Consortium. https://democratic-erosion.org/2024/11/04/the-militarization-of-government-and-policing-in-brazil-a-case-study-of-democratic-backsliding-under-jair-bolsonaro/
Van Royen, M. (2025, December 3). Met elke stap dichter bij de ondergang. De Groene Amsterdammer. https://www.groene.nl/artikel/met-elke-stap-dichter-bij-de-ondergang
V-Dem Institute. (2025). Democracy Report 2025. University of Gothenburg. https://www.v-dem.net/documents/60/V-dem-dr__2025_lowres.pdf
Wintour, P. (2021, September 6). Brazil: warning Bolsonaro may be planning military coup amid rallies. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/06/brazil-warning-bolsonaro-may-be-planning-military-coup-amid-rallies